Critical minerals market note: October 2026

This critical minerals market note covers the developments of the past six weeks that matter most to buyers of tungsten, antimony, tin and tantalum. Trade policy between the United States and China bought more time, but did not settle the questions buyers care about. Meanwhile, physical supply is shifting at the edges: new tungsten units outside China, the return of Myanmar tin ore, and fresh scrutiny of coltan from eastern DRC.

Tungsten: a quieter September in China, more supply outside it

China's domestic tungsten market softened through September. According to Chinatungsten Online, the usual autumn pick-up in demand did not materialise, buyers restocked cautiously, and concentrate, APT and powder prices drifted lower over the month. The same report notes that resource scarcity and policy-driven supply limits still provided a floor, and that Chinese imports of overseas tungsten ore and concentrate have risen substantially as domestic output declines.

Outside China, two developments are worth noting:

Rwanda. On 14 September, Almonty Industries and the Government of Rwanda announced a joint venture to collect, upgrade and export tungsten from existing licensed Rwandan producers, including small-scale miners. Rwanda holds a 25% stake. Mining Weekly reports that the venture will ship to customers in the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea, and that its main test will be traceability across a fragmented artisanal sector.
South Korea. Almonty reported on 29 September that its Sangdong mine has produced its first tungsten concentrate, the first output at the site in more than three decades. Phase 1 is running; a second phase is planned for 2027.

USGS data put Rwanda's 2025 output at about 1,300 tonnes of contained tungsten, against roughly 67,000 tonnes for China. New sources do not change that balance quickly, but they widen the choice of origin for buyers who need non-Chinese material.

Antimony: the November licence deadline is the date to watch

In November 2025, China suspended its ban on exports of antimony, gallium and germanium to the United States. That suspension runs until 27 November 2026. Reuters reported at the time that the metals remain on China's export control list, so every export still needs a licence from Beijing.

Around the late-September summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, the wider trade truce was extended by two months, to 10 January 2027, but critical-mineral issues were left largely unresolved. We have seen no public confirmation that the antimony suspension itself has been extended. Buyers relying on Chinese antimony for US delivery should treat 27 November as a live date.

On the import side, Chinese customs data reported by SMM show that imports of antimony ores and concentrates fell again in August, to about 4,384 tonnes from about 5,401 tonnes in July. Lower ore intake into China tends to tighten feed for Chinese smelters and keeps attention on non-Chinese ore sources.

Tin: Myanmar ore is moving again

The International Crisis Group reported on 10 September that the Man Maw tin mine in Myanmar's Wa State has resumed operations after the suspension that began in 2023. Its assessment, cited by AFP, is that ore is moving again but output remains well below pre-suspension levels. China imported nearly 40,000 tonnes of Myanmar tin ore in the first half of 2026, more than in the whole of 2025.

For buyers, this is a partial easing of one of the market's main supply constraints rather than a return to normal. The International Tin Association noted earlier in the year that disruptions in Myanmar and the DRC, together with Indonesian permit cycles, have repeatedly moved the tin price, often amplified by investment flows.

Tantalum: new scrutiny of eastern DRC coltan

On 21 September, Amnesty International published research on abuses at the Rubaya and Lomera mining sites in eastern DRC, including the killing of 18 artisanal miners, and on minerals trafficked from areas controlled by the M23 group into Rwanda. As reported by AP, the DRC produced more than half of the world's tantalum last year, and Rubaya alone accounts for roughly 15% of global coltan supply.

The report adds to earlier investigations by Global Witness into conflict coltan entering supply chains through Rwanda. It increases pressure on refiners and component makers to show that their tantalum is traceable to a verified mine of origin, not only to an export country.

What it means for buyers

Tungsten: a softer Chinese market may offer short-term room in negotiations, but the floor set by Chinese policy remains. Rwandan and Korean material broadens origin options; check traceability documents carefully, particularly for artisanal-sourced Rwandan concentrate.
Antimony: plan around 27 November 2026. Confirm export licence status with Chinese suppliers and keep alternative ore and ingot sources qualified.
Tin: Myanmar's restart may ease ore tightness gradually; do not assume a quick return to earlier volumes.
Tantalum: expect tighter due diligence questions from customers. Mine-level traceability and third-party audits matter more than country of export.

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